The Broken Promise
"The budget will balance itself."
โ Justin Trudeau, March 2014, before becoming Prime Minister
In the 2015 election, Trudeau promised to run "modest" deficits of $10 billion per year for three years, then balance the budget. Instead, the government ran deficits every single year โ including pre-pandemic years when the economy was growing. The budget never came close to balancing.
Year-by-Year Deficit Record
| Fiscal Year | Deficit / Surplus | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2015โ16 | $1.0B surplus | Inherited from Harper government |
| 2016โ17 | $19B deficit | First Liberal budget โ promised max $10B |
| 2017โ18 | $19B deficit | Economy growing โ no excuse for deficit |
| 2018โ19 | $14B deficit | Promised surplus this year โ broke the promise |
| 2019โ20 | $39B deficit | Pre-pandemic deficit โ growing even before COVID |
| 2020โ21 | $314B deficit | COVID emergency spending โ CERB, CEWS, emergency programs |
| 2021โ22 | $90B deficit | Continued pandemic programs |
| 2022โ23 | $35B deficit | Post-pandemic โ still unable to balance |
| 2023โ24 | $61.9B deficit | Shocking return to high deficit despite economy normalizing |
More New Debt Than All Previous PMs Combined
148 Years vs. 9 Years
It took Canada 148 years โ from Confederation in 1867 to 2015 โ to accumulate the first $616 billion in federal debt. Under Justin Trudeau in just under 10 years, Canada added another $554 billion โ nearly matching the entire accumulated debt of every government from Macdonald to Harper.
While the massive 2020-21 deficit ($314B) was COVID-related, critics note that Trudeau was running $14โ39 billion deficits even before the pandemic in years when the economy was growing. And after COVID, deficits continued at $35โ61.9 billion despite the emergency being over. This was not fiscal discipline with a temporary exception โ it was structural deficit spending throughout.
What Was the Money Spent On?
COVID Emergency Programs (2020-21): ~$350 billion+
- CERB (Canada Emergency Response Benefit): ~$85B to ~8.9 million Canadians
- CEWS (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy): ~$100B to businesses
- Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy, Student Benefit, and other programs
- Rapid housing, vaccines, pandemic procurement
Pre- and Post-Pandemic Spending
- National dental care program: $13B over 5 years
- National childcare: $27.2B over 5 years
- Pharmacare commitments
- Infrastructure spending programs
- Indigenous reconciliation transfers
- 30x30 conservation plan: $3.8B
- Housing Accelerator Fund: $4B (largely ineffective)
- Government growth: Federal public service grew by 40%+ under Trudeau
Waste and Scandal
- ArriveCAN: $54-59.5M for an app worth $250K
- WE Charity administration fees: $43.5M (program cancelled)
- CERB overpayments and fraud: estimated $4.6B
- McKinsey consulting contracts: $116M under Trudeau (2021-2023)
- Federal public service consulting spending: record highs every year
Interest Payments: The Hidden Tax
Debt Service Costs Eating Your Money
As the debt grew and interest rates rose, Canada's annual public debt charges ballooned. The federal government's own 2026 Spring Economic Update projects $53.4 billion in public debt charges for 2024-25, $54.0 billion for 2025-26, and $80.9 billion by 2030-31. Every dollar of interest is a dollar that cannot be spent on services or tax relief. Source: Spring Economic Update 2026, Table A1.7.
For context: projected debt charges by 2030-31 approach a whole second federal program budget โ money going to bondholders, not frontline services. The government argues the debt-to-GDP ratio remains manageable; critics argue the trajectory leaves taxpayers carrying escalating interest costs.
Credit Rating
Canada maintains a AAA rating from Moody's, though S&P had already downgraded Canada from AAA to AA+ in 2002. Rating agencies noted concerns about rising debt levels post-pandemic. While Canada has not faced a formal downgrade during the Liberal era, the trajectory โ with interest costs accelerating and no credible path to surplus โ was flagged as a medium-term risk.