The Broken Promise
"The budget will balance itself."
โ Justin Trudeau, March 2014, before becoming Prime Minister
In the 2015 election, Trudeau promised to run "modest" deficits of $10 billion per year for three years, then balance the budget. Instead, the government ran deficits every single year โ including pre-pandemic years when the economy was growing. The budget never came close to balancing.
Year-by-Year Deficit Record
| Fiscal Year | Deficit / Surplus | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2015โ16 | $1.0B surplus | Inherited from Harper government |
| 2016โ17 | $19B deficit | First Liberal budget โ promised max $10B |
| 2017โ18 | $19B deficit | Economy growing โ no excuse for deficit |
| 2018โ19 | $14B deficit | Promised surplus this year โ broke the promise |
| 2019โ20 | $39B deficit | Pre-pandemic deficit โ growing even before COVID |
| 2020โ21 | $314B deficit | COVID emergency spending โ CERB, CEWS, emergency programs |
| 2021โ22 | $90B deficit | Continued pandemic programs |
| 2022โ23 | $35B deficit | Post-pandemic โ still unable to balance |
| 2023โ24 | $61.9B deficit | Shocking return to high deficit despite economy normalizing |
More New Debt Than All Previous PMs Combined
148 Years vs. 9 Years
It took Canada 148 years โ from Confederation in 1867 to 2015 โ to accumulate the first $616 billion in federal debt. Under Justin Trudeau in just under 10 years, Canada added another $554 billion โ nearly matching the entire accumulated debt of every government from Macdonald to Harper.
While the massive 2020-21 deficit ($314B) was COVID-related, critics note that Trudeau was running $14โ39 billion deficits even before the pandemic in years when the economy was growing. And after COVID, deficits continued at $35โ61.9 billion despite the emergency being over. This was not fiscal discipline with a temporary exception โ it was structural deficit spending throughout.
What Was the Money Spent On?
COVID Emergency Programs (2020-21): ~$350 billion+
- CERB (Canada Emergency Response Benefit): ~$85B to ~8.9 million Canadians
- CEWS (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy): ~$100B to businesses
- Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy, Student Benefit, and other programs
- Rapid housing, vaccines, pandemic procurement
Pre- and Post-Pandemic Spending
- National dental care program: $13B over 5 years
- National childcare: $27.2B over 5 years
- Pharmacare commitments
- Infrastructure spending programs
- Indigenous reconciliation transfers
- 30x30 conservation plan: $3.8B
- Housing Accelerator Fund: $4B (largely ineffective)
- Government growth: Federal public service grew by 40%+ under Trudeau
Waste and Scandal
- ArriveCAN: $54-59.5M for an app worth $250K
- WE Charity administration fees: $43.5M (program cancelled)
- CERB overpayments and fraud: estimated $4.6B
- McKinsey consulting contracts: $116M under Trudeau (2021-2023)
- Federal public service consulting spending: record highs every year
Interest Payments: The Hidden Tax
Debt Service Costs Eating Your Money
As the debt grew and interest rates rose from near-zero (2020-21) to over 5% (2022-23), Canada's annual debt interest payments ballooned. By 2024, interest on the federal debt exceeded $40 billion annually โ more than the entire federal health transfer to provinces. Every dollar of interest is a dollar that cannot be spent on healthcare, education, or tax relief.
For context: Canada's entire defence budget is approximately $36B/year. The interest on the debt โ money going to bondholders, not Canadians โ now exceeds what we spend defending the country. This is the legacy of a decade of deficit spending.
Credit Rating
Canada maintains a AAA rating from Moody's, though S&P had already downgraded Canada from AAA to AA+ in 2002. Rating agencies noted concerns about rising debt levels post-pandemic. While Canada has not faced a formal downgrade during the Liberal era, the trajectory โ with interest costs accelerating and no credible path to surplus โ was flagged as a medium-term risk.