Update — October 7, 2026: September starts still pending
CMHC’s reports calendar still shows the next monthly housing-starts release, covering September 2026 data, scheduled for October 16, 2026. Until that release is posted, the August starts data remains the latest official monthly snapshot for this page. CMHC reports calendar
Update — September 16, 2026: August starts replaced the July watch item
CMHC’s August 2026 release is now out. The six-month housing-starts trend fell 1.3% to 244,149 units; actual monthly starts in centres of 10,000+ were down 2% year-over-year at 17,691 units; and the standalone monthly SAAR was essentially flat at 229,046 units compared with 229,360 in July. This updates the old “August data scheduled for September 16” note while keeping the broader affordability/supply test in place. CMHC August 2026 housing starts
Update — September 2, 2026: July was latest before the September 16 August release
September 16 update: this September 2 note has been superseded by CMHC’s August 2026 housing-starts release above. It is retained only as audit history for why the July numbers were used before the August release was published.
Update — August 19, 2026: July starts confirm slower supply momentum
CMHC’s July 2026 release is now out. The six-month housing-starts trend was essentially flat but still slipped 0.5% to 247,377 units, actual monthly starts in centres of 10,000+ were down 19% year-over-year at 18,834 units, and total monthly SAAR fell 5% from June to 229,074 units. CMHC’s own note says starts are “continuing to moderate” and are likely to remain subdued over the coming months. This replaces the prior July-release watch item with the current source. CMHC July 2026 housing starts
Update — July 22, 2026: June starts moved the wrong way
CMHC’s June 2026 housing-starts release replaced the “scheduled for July 16” watch item. The six-month trend fell 2.8% from May to 248,123 units, and actual monthly starts in centres of 10,000+ were down 13% year-over-year at 20,265 units. That does not prove a permanent collapse, but it undercuts any claim that federal housing supply is accelerating fast enough to restore affordability. CMHC June 2026 housing starts
Update — June 17, 2026: May starts basically flat, not enough for affordability
CMHC’s May 2026 release is now out: the six-month housing-starts trend was nearly flat at 258,010 units, while the total monthly standalone SAAR fell 6% to 261,377 units. That keeps construction well below the roughly 430,000–480,000 starts per year CMHC has said Canada would need through 2035 to restore affordability to early-2000s levels. CMHC’s next monthly release, covering June starts, is scheduled for July 16, 2026. CMHC May 2026 release
The Price Collapse
| Year | Avg National Home Price | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | ~$450,000 | Trudeau takes office. Affordable for dual-income households. |
| 2017 | ~$530,000 | Liberal policies fuel speculative demand in Vancouver and Toronto. |
| 2019 | ~$530,000 | Plateaued briefly after mortgage stress test. |
| 2021 | ~$680,000 | Carney's era near-zero interest rates + pandemic demand surge. |
| Feb 2022 | $817,000 | Peak. 9× median household income. Worst affordability since 1982. |
| 2024-25 | ~$700,000–$750,000 | Post-rate-hike correction. Still far beyond reach of average Canadians. |
The BBC described Canada as having "some of the worst housing affordability issues in the world."
The G7's Worst Housing Supply
424 Units per 1,000 People
Canada has 424 housing units per 1,000 people — the lowest in the G7. France has 540. Germany has 500+. The problem isn't just demand — it's a decade of underbuilding while the population surged.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimated Canada needed to nearly double housing starts — from ~250,000 to 430,000–480,000 per year through 2035 — just to restore affordability to 2003-2004 levels. Actual starts averaged far below this.
Immigration: Demand Without Supply
Record Population Growth, No Housing Plan
Under Trudeau, Canada dramatically expanded immigration targets without a corresponding plan to build housing:
- 2024: 483,390 new permanent residents — plus hundreds of thousands of temporary residents, international students, and foreign workers
- Total newcomers added to population: over 1 million per year by 2023-24
- International students in 2023: over 900,000 — straining rental markets in Toronto, Vancouver, and university towns across Canada
- Average rents in major cities rose by 20%+ from 2020 to 2024
Even the CMHC — a government agency — acknowledged that record immigration intake, combined with inadequate housing construction, was a major driver of price increases and rental inflation. The Trudeau government began reducing immigration targets only in 2024, under severe political pressure, after years of denial.
Promises vs. Reality
-
✗2015 Promise: Reinvest in social and affordable housing
Reality: Housing prices rose 80%+ under their watch. -
✗2017 Promise: National Housing Strategy — $55 billion over 10 years
Reality: Despite billions in commitments, affordability hit its worst point since 1982. -
✗2022 Promise: Two-year ban on foreign buyers
Reality: Largely ineffective — foreign buyers represent only ~3-5% of the market. Domestic speculation and immigration-driven demand were the real drivers. -
✗2022 Promise: Housing Accelerator Fund ($4 billion)
Reality: While some municipalities reformed zoning, housing starts fell short of targets. The fund was a fraction of what was needed. -
✗Multiple promises: Make housing affordable for young Canadians
Reality: In 2024, Canadian millennials and Gen Z face the worst homeownership prospects of any generation since the Great Depression.
Young Canadians: A Generation Locked Out
The Math Doesn't Work
At $817,000 (2022 peak), an average Canadian home required:
- A $163,400 down payment (20%) — about 3-4 years of an average family's gross income
- Monthly mortgage payments of approximately $4,200–$4,800 (at 2023 interest rates)
- A household income of $180,000+ to qualify and afford comfortably
- The median Canadian household income is approximately $90,000
The math is impossible for most young Canadians without family wealth transfers. Home ownership has dropped sharply for Canadians under 40. A generation of renters is being created — permanently — by Liberal policy failures.
"Housing in Canada has never been this expensive relative to incomes. We are at the worst level of affordability since 1982."
— Bank of Canada, December 2023