The Liberal Honeymoon Now Has an Affordability Bill

Carney still leads. But fresh polling shows the mood turning precisely where Ottawa is weakest: cost of living, the economy and housing.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government is not collapsing in the polls. That matters, because accountability should start with the full picture. Abacus Data’s June 7 tracking still shows the Liberals ahead nationally and Carney personally more popular than Pierre Poilievre.

But the same poll also punctures the easiest Liberal talking point: that Carney’s brand of technocratic calm has solved the country’s confidence problem. Abacus found government approval at 52 percent, with 31 percent disapproving — a seven-point approval drop and four-point disapproval increase since May 20. The firm called it the largest setback since Carney became Prime Minister.

The mood shift is just as important as the horse race. Abacus says 40 percent of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, while 45 percent say it is on the wrong track. Two weeks earlier, those numbers were 47 percent right direction and 39 percent wrong track. That is not a revolution. It is a warning light.

The warning is flashing over pocketbook issues. Asked to name the top three issues facing Canada, 66 percent chose the rising cost of living. The economy followed at 39 percent, health care at 34 percent, and housing affordability and accessibility at 33 percent. In other words, Canadians are not asking Ottawa for another branding exercise. They are asking whether paycheques, rent, mortgages, groceries, jobs and services are getting better.

Carney’s personal numbers tell the same story. Abacus found 51 percent with a positive impression of him, 30 percent negative, 17 percent neutral and 2 percent unsure — a net score of plus 21. That is still strong. But it is down from plus 30 over two weeks. The key point is not that Poilievre suddenly surged. Abacus says Poilievre remained net negative. The key point is that Carney’s own enthusiasm premium softened.

For conservatives, the lesson is simple: do not mistake voter frustration for an automatic opposition victory. The Liberals still lead 44 percent to 36 percent among committed voters, according to Abacus. Among voters certain to vote, the Liberal number is even higher. Carney retains advantages with older voters, Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

But for taxpayers, the accountability question is sharper than the partisan scorecard. A government that still leads while public optimism retreats has no excuse for secrecy or spin. It has every reason to publish measurable results: monthly affordability indicators, housing completions versus targets, food-price and rent pressure, private-sector job creation, deficit tracking, and the actual delivery status of promised infrastructure and energy projects.

Carney came to office selling competence. Competence is not a vibe, and it is not a honeymoon. It is a ledger. If Canadians keep naming cost of living, the economy and housing as the country’s biggest problems, then the Prime Minister should be judged on those outputs — not on how reassuringly he describes the inputs.